No Recession Now, and None Likely Soon, Experts Say

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Despite over half of Americans believing the US is in a recession, experts disagree. Polls show people think the economy is shrinking, influenced by media coverage and personal experiences of inflation and the housing market. However, data shows the economy is still growing.

Key points:

  • GDP Growth: The US GDP continues to grow, albeit more slowly.
  • Low Unemployment: The unemployment rate remains historically low at around 3.9%.
  • Inflation: While inflation is higher than before, it’s under 4% and has decreased since 2021 and 2022.
  • Stock Market: The S&P 500 has generally been rising.

Experts like David Kelly, Eugenio Alem├ín, and Gregory Daco agree that while economic challenges exist, a recession is not imminent. The “misery index” (inflation plus unemployment) is better than it has been most of the time over the past 60 years.

Concerns remain, such as high interest rates and fluctuating housing market sales. However, overall, the economy is stable, and experts don’t foresee a recession soon.


Hey, America, Here’s What’s Actually Going on With the Economy (

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